War on Iran and the economy
War on Iran: Analysis and commentary
My policy papers, media commentary, and visualisations on the economic consequences of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
2026
Trump vs Europe as US presses for release of emergency diesel stocks. Al Jazeera, October
Beyond Borders: Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Plan. Interview with Pakistan TV, September
UAE positioned to profit from fragmentation of global trade, The Banker, September
Perspective: U.S.–Iran War: Global Economy Faces New Shock, interview with Pakistan TV, September
Why has the Netherlands moved $10bn of its gold from the US?, Al Jazeera, September
The US is gobbling up Venezuelan oil, but will it lower fuel prices?, Al Jazeera, September
Perspective: US-Iran War, Hormuz Crisis, Sanctions, What Comes Next? Interview with Pakistan TV, August
Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ claims first victim: Not Iran, but US markets, Al Jazeera, August
War on Iran and the world economy, interview with Al Jazeera TV, August
Perspective: The World’s Oil Choke-Point, interview with Pakistan TV, August
Yemen and the Battle for the Red Sea, webinar, Middle East Council, July
Oil and geopolitics, interview with Bloomberg TV, July
Will a US-Iran deal unlock $300bn in investment fund for Tehran?, Al Jazeera, June
ما الذي نعرفه عن أموال إيران المجمدة؟, BBC Arabic, June
Did Iran make out better from the war?, CNN, June
Oman’s wartime paradox: Diplomatic losses, economic gains, Al-Monitor, June
The Iran War Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations, New York Times, May
Gulf nations hoped to move beyond oil. The Iran war made that much harder, Washington Post, May
Vecchi oleodotti, ferrovie e canali futuristici: il Golfo cerca nuove rotte per bypassare Hormuz [Old pipelines, railways, and futuristic canals: the Gulf searches new routes to bypass Hormuz], La Repubblica, May (Italian only)
UAE supply chain plan to protect against external shocks in ‘uncertain world’, The National, May
Gulf countries’ plans to bypass Hormuz still far off, experts warn (syndicated France24 link), AFP, May
UAE’s OPEC exit signals strategic shift as Gulf unity faces new test over oil policy, Euronews, May
OPEC vor der Zerreissprobe?, podcast interview, Morning Briefing, The Pioneer (in German), April
Is Iran’s oil storage nearly full – and will it have to cut production?, Al Jazeera, April
How long can Iran survive the US’s Hormuz blockade?, Al Jazeera, April
How Iran war has triggered soaring cost of medicines, Al Jazeera, April
Economic consequences of Hormuz closure, TV interview, BBC News, April
The geopolitical and geoeconomic prospects of the planned peace talks, Experts Corner, Pakistan TV, April
Commentary on the declared reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, TV interview for CGTN America, April
What are Iran’s $100bn in frozen assets and where are they held?, Al Jazeera, April
Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?, TV panel on “Counting the Cost,” Al Jazeera English, April
How much will US Hormuz blockade hurt Iran, and does Tehran have an escape?, Al Jazeera, April
The Conflict’s Impact on Food and Water Security Explained, webinar, UN Water Conference Academic Hub & Observer Research Foundation Middle East, April
War, Oil & Inflation: Is the global economy heading for stagflation?, TV panel, The Agenda on CGTN, April
War-induced fertiliser shock for MENA, Q&A, ByTheEast, April
Iran war consequences on global supply chains, interview for Bulgarian National Television, March
Iran war to dent Gulf state investment. DW, March
Iran Conflict’s Impact on Global Economy Could Be Underestimated by Markets. El Balad, March
Global Economy at Tipping Point as Iran War Oil Surge Sparks Financial Crisis Fears. International Business Times, March
Prolonged Iran Conflict Starting to Raise Specter of Stagflation. Investing.com, March
Strait of Hormuz blockage drives up Gulf food bills, AFP (link via RFI), March
How badly has the Iran war hit the global economy? The tell-tale signs, Al Jazeera, March
Markets may be underestimating how the Iran war could hit the global economy, Euronews, March
Economic fallout of the war on Iran, TV interview for Al Jazeera English, March
2025
Economic Fallout of the Israel-Iran War on the Gulf, interview for MEnbar Podcast, July
2026
Keeping Eyes on Oil or on the Future, ITT Nexus, October
GCC 360, September Issue — Moharram & Partners, September
Why Has the Price of Oil Remained Below War-Time Expectations?, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, August
GCC 360, August Issue — Moharram & Partners, August
With Hormuz Blocked Again, How Effective Are the Gulf’s Bypass Routes?, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, August
GCC 360, July Issue — Moharram & Partners, July
It’s Time for a Climate OPEC — Gulf International Forum, June
GCC 360, June Issue — Moharram & Partners, June
After the War: Reorienting Gulf Economic Policy — Webinar, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, June
The Costs of the Iran War Ceasefire for the Gulf States — Middle East Council on Global Affairs, May
Saudi Arabia at a Crossroads: Economic Fragility Before and After the War — Carpo, May
Qatar’s Strategic Balancing Amid Escalation and Disruption — Situation Assessment, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, May
The UAE’s OPEC Exit Leaves the Gulf Further Adrift — Middle East Council on Global Affairs, May
Economic Crisis, Human Cost: The Consequences of the War on Iran for the People of the Gulf — DAWN, May
The War on Iran and the Complex Economics of Fertilisers and Food — Noria Research, April
The Costs of the Iran Conflict for the Gulf — Middle East Council on Global Affairs, March
2025
After the Shock: The Israel-Iran War’s Economic Impact on the Gulf (Arabic version) — Policy Note, Middle East Council on Global Affairs, July 2025.
March WTI was up 41% compared to February. It’s true that this has not been the largest month-on-month increase in history, as the bar chart shows. The 1973 OPEC embargo raised the price by 135% and WTI recovered in 2020 from a catastrophic drop during Covid by 73%.
Neither episode is comparable though: in an era of price controls, the January 1974 jump came two and a half months after the embargo and concentrated the bottled-up upward pressure in one massive correction; the 2020 Covid rebound is another anomaly that came on the back of futures turning negative.
The line chart is a more accurate picture of the steep increase we are currently witnessing, compared to other crises in the last 40 years. That is what the IEA executive director, Fatih Birol, meant when he described the current crisis as “two oil crises and one gas crisis put all together.” And as things stand, we are in for much more.
Hormuz exposure and stock market performance
Scatter plot: the higher a country’s share of Hormuz-transiting hydrocarbons, the more its leading stock market has fallen. Notable outliers include European markets, South Korea, Taiwan, and China.
Hydrocarbon revenue per capita (2024)
Oil and gas revenue per capita by country in 2024. Qatar leads by a significant margin. Dramatic shifts expected in 2026 following the war. Original data from the Gulf International Forum.
Global consequences of the war on Iran
Radial cascade diagram mapping the economic effects from Hormuz closure and airspace shutdowns through microeconomic supply shocks to macroeconomic consequences — inflation, interest rates, growth, employment, sovereign debt.
GCC economic fallout from the war on Iran
Flow diagram of the cascade from physical effects (infrastructure strikes, Hormuz closure) through affected industries to the fate of diversification strategies and long-term growth prospects.
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